The Rmb needs of exchange rate are slow and are stabilized appreciation

An Gang ( cool brain An)

When whole world is faced with deflation pressure world again focusing Rmb — divide into guess Rmb exchange rate will appreciate? If Rmb real needs appreciate will how to rise , how rise talent for civilians and government favourable?

Since 2002 years, besides sea, have scraped a wild wind that asks Rmb appreciation. Is Japanese wealth first appearance put forward on 7 country wealth long meetings is more similar than 1985 aim at Yen " square agreement " file, ask Rmb appreciation; Soon afterwards, some American government officials also express clearly that Rmb should appreciate. Because of U.S. dollar, go to low , is European , worry about the competitive impact of Chinese export sale with some countries of East Asia, also different level land have joined requirement the ranks of Rmb appreciation. For the current voice and strong expection of home and overseas for Rmb appreciation, what should we treat? Whether had Rmb been underestimated? Measure currency exchange rate, whether have you which standard reasonably mainly?

Oppose Rmb appreciation and hope, Rmb steady sound

Luo Na De · wheat golden farming ( RonaldMcKinnon, this American level good fortune university economic department instruct , finance deepen the founder of theory. He is the government adviser of South Korean in 60 decade, have guided the financial reform of South Korean successfully, ) Think: Rmb appreciation is a bad suggestion of danger In recent years Chinese export increase vigorously have aroused the unsatisfaction of some industrialization countries of old brand, complain Chinese product too cheap. The favorable balance of trade of China rapidly increased at the same time, from 1994 since Rmb exchange U.S. dollar exchange rate stabilize always in 8. 3 control. A lot of economists have suggested to now allow Rmb appreciation. I think that this is a bad suggestion of danger.
In exchange rate whether should appreciate aspect, Japan is warning taken from the over turned cart ahead. Last century is gone to in 60 decade in the middle of 90 decade, Japanese steel material and the export fast increase of automobile, machinery and semiconductor arise the favorable balance of trade of a huge sum, this makes Europe and the industrial circle of America feel worry deeply , and has produced a lot of trading disputes from this. Authority and Finance Ministers of America often threaten Japan to let Yen appreciate. Japan agrees on the one hand formally " is voluntary , " to restrict this kind of product export, on the other hand, tacitly consent to to pass through Yen appreciation, solve these disputes. As a result from the 1 dollars of 1971 years, exchange the rising of 360 Yen around the 116 Yen of today, ( is 250 for 85 years, reach 87 for 96 years). Theoretically, in open economy, regular account favourable balance is decided from a country net save trend instead of exchange rate; The last decision of exchange rate domestic inflation or deflation. Fact is also only such, Yen appreciate considerably do not not only eliminate the favorable balance of trade of Japan, in 20 century 80 decade and 90 decade Yen strong have still imposed deflation pressure for the economy in Japanese decline, force its nominal interest rate to tend to 0. Japan also enters us therefore say frequently, " mobility trap ", currency policy tends to invalid. [ the economic problem of Japan, resemble from table see source is day round appreciation, think major reason personally is day round appreciation too bring quickly negative influence. Day round appreciation will inevitably bring the price of export sale drop , product cost proportion rising, if upward revaluation of currency too rapid, inevitable selling price produce cost below, because of enterprise have no straight profit, natural problem Duo Duo ].
China has been situated between today in the edge of deflation. Though for 2003 years, consumer price index arises 0 probably. 1% on raise , but any appreciation of Rmb may make Chinese economy fall into deflation in. Domestically, price can drop continuously can appreciate continuously with Rmb market expect , China can enter with Japanese identical trap in, face deflation until then, currency policy will feel quite helpless.
When deciding whether a established system of exchange rate may keep in process, expection is very important. China is maintaining $ 1 , exchange 8. 3 in the exchange rate of Rmb already all previous a lot of worried times. For the overall benefit of the maintenance region of East Asia, China has withstood pressure and a lot of bad foreign suggestions , does not let Rmb devalue in the 1997 crisises of Southeast Asia. Now, after being as long as the exchange rate of 8 years to stabilize, Chinese government should exchange $ 1 8. 3, Rmb does not come as balanced exchange rate, will not change because of the fluctuation of financial incident. What is especially important is that do not discuss to make it variable. Along with the relax of the control of foreign exchange, have certain fluctuation on this central exchange rate, is may; But market should understand that central of exchange rate is not discussing.
Financial organization, enterprise and the private investor of China possess considerable overseas U.S. dollar liquid assets. This U.S. dollar Xuan put volume estimate take the 10-20% of Chinese Gross National Product. These assets are much than what the mobility of liability is eager to excel. Therefore even if a simple appreciation is hinted , may cause to sell U.S. dollar and Rmb , appreciate considerably. Result will be domestic deflation, is close to in the floating trap of interest rate of 0. How to should you eliminate the expection of Rmb appreciation? Chinese government will not only stabilize Rmb, is for the exchange rate of U.S. dollar and to give market a credible promise - - will not change this exchange rate ( author think: The appreciation of Yen has no mistake, what is wrong is that government control disadvantage is caused the speed of upward revaluation of currency too rapid).

Tan Ya Ling ( the international financial set of Bank of China of research institute study Yuan, Chinese international economic relation learn routine trustee): My individual insists Rmb to maintain steady viewpoint always , is too upheaval because of current peripheral economic atmosphere. Actually, U.S. dollar is so demoted all the way, or go , is strong , have no one to decide number, after all, American economy has filled with , do not determine. Now time move , exchange rate is benefit have no. Today of globalization, western developed country occupies leading position in the general layout of world economy regardless of its economic strength , policy is still with space for the influence of world economy far is higher than us , in their economy is in do not determine state in time, we move exchange rate can bring awkwardness and negative effect only. The Argentina, Brazil and Thailand of this respect are warning taken from the over turned cart ahead, they is because of move exchange rate cause currency fluctuate substantially, cause financial market investment confidence instability, cause foreign capital to outflow in large quantities, cause financial crisis eventually with upheaval, Thailand even at the same time arise currency and bank crisis.
The exchange rate of our periphery country of Southeast Asia is to watch U.S. dollar , normally, say that U.S. dollar devalues , these national currencies should also devalue , because their capital project is complete open. Is opposite , because of South Korean and Thailand the investment of the stock market vigorous have driven the appreciation of this currency of home made goods. Now, South Korean and Thailand have felt the pressure of the appreciation of exchange rate , Thailand has begun to intervene exchange rate. They take part to intervene the market of exchange rate with eliminate the appreciation of exchange rate the practice of negative influence is worth for us pay attention to. After Japan passes depreciation last year, what have realized exchange rate change , is a kind of injury for its economic image and benefit of large country.
The problem of exchange rate is sensitive for trading comparison , should so have longterm counter-measure more from this angle. Our trade lacks longterm strategic consciousness, should cross-eye former thing special much. If trading structural problem is discussed , is long time , still have , is that quantity exceeds quality , win with quantity , lack product competitive advantage. Longterm strategy is considered need to reform , have a breach, have a option, problem can not be considered always from short line angle problem. My personal feeling, American can for before one's eyes see do not come , so policy control very flexible, his leading force and influence also in go up. Though, our foundation does not be very good, but we should study the longterm strategic consciousness of America, the such Rmb mechanism of exchange rate and the establishment of the Rmb policy of exchange rate compare freely.
Now, the comprehensive jointance of economic problem is too big , from a market, a angle is seen problem or expect a kind of trend have gone through difficulty , economic globalization have strengthened this kind of complexity greatly. The mechanism of exchange rate of currency does not be that the exchange rate of single layer surface rises , fall with the market condition of exchange rate. It's relation surface is many , support and ensure role with bank, the macro-control that still has entire central bank is ensured ability is close is linked. The international income and expenses of foreign exchange reserve are a aspect only, but entire financial system stabilize with financial policy control ability, stabilize for exchange rate is one strong sustain.
The strong tendency position of lifting example and U.S. dollar has its economic foundation. First, it's GDP takes the 30% of whole world; Is second , the bank system of America is steady. Even if American economy is now in decline stage, but, the profit level of American bank is to go to go always , 1000 global big bank Americas have taken the homes more than 200, 500, strong transnational corporation has taken 1 / 2s. The strong tendency of U.S. dollar is economic strength with bank efficiency make Ran.
The exchange rate of everyone's talk can not be broken away from bank layer surface and financial system layer surface. For our country , original finance is from become system. After joining WTO, is opening gradually, this open external environment does not be especially good, all usually claim " upheavalness is too big , uncertainty is too big , not has too big clearness. " this reform potential risk pressure to finance very big. Because have this kind of uncertainty, you are nearly impossible to expect that it can occur what, like 9. 11 incident , fall Sa war and so on a series of politics and military layer surface is hard expected.
The Rmb problem of exchange rate should financial system stabilize , bank field the steady, entire macro-control of central bank perfect and improve consideration go in , can not go to the assessment mechanism of exchange rate and the level of exchange rate only from the difference in degree of currency value suitable with Fou. Actually, the sound perfect influence for exchange rate of financial system is biggest, still have the guarantee of bank efficiency, the completeness of bank mechanism and bank risk, reduce is little. Our country now finance what most lack is the problem of efficiency, bank sticks out more in this respect somewhat. Still have picture, bad asset and so on a series of problem is influence the important problem of financial reform. Financial reform and the economic reform of Japan can not go to position all along, study its reason to lie in bank, slow-witted bad account is for entire economic reform with financial reform pin down very obviously. So the Rmb problem of exchange rate can not overlook , in financial system relative more weak a ring -- bank.
The reform of the system of exchange rate should be a longterm goal, reform opportunity option very important. This will see that the economy of home is basic , such as the condition of foreign exchange reserve and the international condition of income and expenses; Will see more that world is environmental , it is little that the international environmental relative more steady risk that brings for the system reform of exchange rate is compared. Now, the international environment that we face is not good , I think the system of exchange rate do not move is advisable. Now, entire market speculation is too big , speculation too big pros and cons have reflected economic atmosphere do not determine , make investment direction do not make clear , short line speculation heat money in the market mobility very big. Is close connection say, oil price, golden price, exchange rate and the stock market together , in do short line, cause the market price fluctuation of short period to compare big, conversely price fluctuation come back to life for economy with stabilize is unfavourable. This is that a kind of malignant link is interweaved in a son.
Is other , the words that national exchange rate will change will see domestic foundation development condition, related supplemental thing. As financial policy match the reform problem etc. of problem and economic market. In which, financial policy is most important. From American economic development, financial policy is very big for the support surface of currency policy , is during Clinton government , American financial appearance surplus, strong tendency currency policy emerge as the times require. Last year, American finance is also a huge sum of deficit, this makes strong tendency U.S. dollar get resistance and query is also very big. Russia, Brazil and Japan are currency policy do not match with financial policy have caused crisis to appear or economy drop.
Besides, still have the problem of unfavorable balance of trade and the problem of interest rate as well as bring from this, confidence and psychological problem. Now, economic phenomenon can not be seemingly already explained with the financial theory of tradition completely, is clear. You see that European center is all right to lower interest , should be that dozen presses promotion the stock market of exchange rate after lowering interest , happen as a result, is opposite , - - the fierce rise of exchange market, the stock market fierce fall. America unites to store up lower interest do not also flee such fate. Evidently, people are for confidence with psychology rely on exceed the real economy sustain.

Nuo shellfish Er economy award get God put on Er — —
The Rmb appreciation of exchange rate has 6 big harms: 1, Rmb is to can not exchange freely under capital account , also decide namely that the mechanism of exchange rate does not be market, change , have no meaning; 2, the deflation that Rmb appreciation can give China brings larger pressure; 3, the Rmb appreciation of exchange rate will be caused for the attraction of foreign capital drop , reduce the direct investment of foreign trader for China; 4, cause maximum injury to the export of foreign trade of China; 5, the Rmb appreciation of exchange rate can reduce increase employment pressure and the profit margin of Chinese enterprise; 6, financial deficit will increase because of the appreciation of Rmb exchange rate, at the same time, affect currency policy, stabilize. ( Author note: This will produce a problem , when capital project may be exchanged freely when occuring , if having 10000000000,000 dollars suddenly, asks to invest in China , presses 8. The exchange rate of 3 we can bear? Reply is affirmed , can not. From this Rmb, necessity appreciates considerably in short time, the history of Japan will be recured in China. I may affirm say: " Only when capital project may be exchanged freely Rmb exchange must be market approve exchange rate, also have only the history of such Japan will not just recur in China ").

Hope the sound of Rmb appreciation

Remain , decide forever ( Oxford university economy doctor the world economy and political research of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences place grow , study Yuan , rich Dao, Chinese world economy can acting president): I am Rmb firm support of steady exchange rate. During Asian financial crisis, I support Rmb to not devalue always firmly policy. For Japanese wealth length about the speech of Rmb exchange rate, I can not agree. But I also do not think that Rmb exchange rate should be watched forever U.S. dollar can not change. We should not politicalize the influence of viewpoint by it when deciding the own policy of exchange rate. My individual thinks that now, Rmb had been underestimated really. But have no foreigner to say, so much( have the report Rmb of dispatches from foreign news agencies had been underestimated 20% — 30%). I want to emphasize , Rmb exchange rate whether appreciate in still do not be a very pressing problem now. Appreciate or do not appreciate , will not fall down in day. The more important problem that changes than Rmb exchange rate is the system problem of exchange rate.
The appreciation of Rmb will be strengthened the appreciation of investor for Rmb is expected , the speculation of short period " hot money " flow into possibility increase obviously, so stabilize for the macro-economics of China cause many unfavourable influence. How to pass through capital control and other waies restrain the speculation capital of short period flow to enter is to need the problem that we consider further. Especially, is controling the speculation capital of short period , flow on problem, we can not forget this capital control weapon.
Now, Rmb is faced with appreciation pressure, once enlarge Rmb exchange the floating scope of U.S. dollar, Rmb will appreciate. But because of allow appreciate range limited, Chinese import and export will not get great influence.
Experience proves that Chinese import and export are not large for the elasticity of the change of exchange rate. During Asian financial crisis China in the major country market of trading object in export share do not occur obvious change. Since our country expects since exporting that mainly with processing, Rmb exchange rate appreciates appropriately will not serious influence the export competition ability of China. At the same time, appreciate appropriately, may promote the winning of the export enterprise of foreign trade, bad Tai, improvement Chinese trading condition , promote enterprise carry out structuralness adjustment and raising export profit margin. Besides return can for alleviate center is all right for rush operate pressure wait for aspect bring positive influence.
Our country adopts during Asian financial crisis to watch the policy of exchange rate of U.S. dollar, very have no alternative. As a kind of regular system of exchange rate, watch U.S. dollar, favourable have fraud. For example, in 90 decade, the country that occurs currency crisis all is the country that carries out the regular system of exchange rate ( the most is watch the regular system of exchange rate of U.S. dollar) invariably; Otherwise, the country that carries out the floating system of exchange rate all does not occur currency crisis.
According to recognized economic theory, is fixing exchange rate and capital freedom , 3 currency policy that flow and stand indepently in, can only take secondly. As a large country, China must maintain independent currency policy. This is no problem. At the same time, China has selected , realize step by step the capital project road that melts freely. Under this kind of condition, China has to give up regular exchange rate sooner or later , lets Rmb and U.S. dollar unhook free and floating.
The problem of now do not be Rmb whether should be with U.S. dollar unhook when with with what way unhook. I think that now is the better opportunity that Rmb begins same U.S. dollar unhook probably. During Asian financial crisis, Rmb is faced with huge devaluation pressure, capital flee serious, once let Rmb devalue , Rmb exchange the exchange rate of U.S. dollar have possibility out of control , one Xie 1000 in, so make China fall into serious currency crisis and financial crisis. On the other hand, because of Rmb, insist to not devalue , the export of China have borne huge pressure. At that time the extensive common recongnition of economist is: Rmb should be with U.S. dollar unhook ( is actually not again undertake Rmb do not devalue promise ), the best opportunity of unhook is Rmb do not devalue pressure and market do not expect Rmb again will devalue time.
Now, Rmb is strong , capital flee stop , market expected Rmb appreciation basically instead of devalue. Under this condition, Rmb begins to change to watch the policy of exchange rate of U.S. dollar will not stabilize for the currency of China to produce serious unfavourable influence. We should firmly grasp opportunity , make Rmb begin same U.S. dollar unhook, the better opportunity that waited blindly may make us lose opportunity.
From operating layer surface, the most safe method is that the late floating scope of exchange rate that lets Rmb exchange U.S. dollar enlarges. For instance, exchange 8 with 1 dollars. 27 Rmb allow to float for center or float 1 percent or do not exceed 3 percents at most. This has 3 roles at least:
First, send signal to outside world: Is a responsible large country that is , China is to consider the benefit of other countries fully , China is solving the trading unbalanced problem between other same countries with great efforts.
Secondly, send signal to enterprise and financial organization: In the future, the risk of foreign exchange will increase , enterprise and financial organization should make corresponding preparation, strengthen risk, is on guard. At the same time, China should establish the forward market of foreign exchange step by step , avoids for enterprise and financial organization the financial tool that the risk of exchange rate offers necessity.
Is final , what is also most important is that if after some year, Chinese international income and expenses occur unfavourable change, when Rmb needs devalue , have management because of having resumed , float , enterprise and financial organization have had more strong strain ability, Rmb exchange rate may be adjusted at any time, the necessaryness and possibility that adjusted considerably will decrease greatly.
Along with the increase of experience, we may make floating range enlarge further, if make floating range worth about floating 10%-15% around center. It is a kind of cautious method that I think that at present, exchange rate enlarges floating interval, step by step on the foundation of system.

The economic place poplar sail of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences weigh , Rmb mid-term appreciation tendency have established from 1994, do not now still appreciate , is because of the intervention market of central bank of foreign exchange , purchase extra foreign exchange cause. According to estimation, the reponsible department of our country will employ Rmb in average every month to buy in approximate five billions dollars , then can maintain the exchange rate of now. Poplar sail is considered , the appreciation of Rmb intrinsic pressure source in 3 aspects: Domestic save exceeds investment greatly, capital excesses; Work , dense type estate excesses; Because of preferential policy, foreign capital gushes every year in large quantities with the speed of fifty billions dollars to enter.
First China for export depend on degree have no 20 century the Japan of 80 decade strong. What Japan carry out always is that " trading mood country " policy exports the influence for its economy more than 50%. Though China from last century in 90 decade because of export increase swiftly, GDP for foreign trade depend on degree from the 0 of 80 decade. 7% last litres goes to 7% , but is lower than the level of then Japan.
Secondly the appreciation of Rmb for attracting foreign capital in China, should be good news. In 20 century 90 decade, American implement strong tendency U.S. dollar policy, this have taken negative influence though for the export of America, can but gain objective existence in America because of capital input remit difference, so, plenty of capitals begin gush into America, have supported economic high speed to increase. What sail is considered , once Rmb appreciates , above-mentioned phenomenon can appear surely in China.

Rmb is being forced to " square agreement " we how to reply?

" wood Xiu in forest, wind surely Cui. " for 2002 years base when people immerse in Chinese economic continuity in world on " one only Xiu " sense of pride in , the official priority of Japan and America is increased for support Chinese economic high speed " 3 drive carriage " one - - Rmb exchange rate stabilize initiate attack. In their eye Rmb exchange rate quilt serious underestimate , ask Rmb appreciation. The Rmb mechanism of exchange rate is being in subtle change in.
In December 2002, is first , salt river wealth appearance is pointed out on one Japanese Congress meeting, according to the par theory of purchasing power the now of currency value of Rmb quilt serious underestimate , open requirement Chinese government raising Rmb exchange rate. At the same time, he shows , Japan will in G 7( 7 western countries) meeting on, the Rmb problem of exchange rate is a subject, ask other countries pass is more similar than 1985 aim at Yen " square agreement " file, force Rmb appreciation.
This duration, American news media also quote some American experts the viewpoint concerning " China is exporting deflation ", ask that Rmb appreciates. Thai center is all right to grow Di Yie know , recently, also point out time and again that China is a reason that causes other Asian regions to fall into deflation. Again earlier, September 2002 the organization IMF of International Monetary Fund(IMF) have also appealed Chinese consideration adopt the mechanism of exchange rate of elasticity.
Face the economic difficult condition of continuous 10 years, all previous government of Japan has displayed ability , untie number from head to foot, " 0 interest rates " stimulate domestic consuming, support Yen devaluation promotes export etc. measure, have very tiny results , but what most let Japanese government feel satisfaction is that Yen devaluation. It makes Japanese and regular the huge increase of favorable balance of trade becomes the window that has only a small number in Japanese economy. Problem is the space of Yen continued devaluation already very little, therefore, Japan can now adopt the best method, is through the appreciation of other national currencies reach the relative devaluation of Yen.
On the other hand, Japan abandons from postwar 100 to treat the state of mood shake body to become 20 century, the economic large country of 80 decade is more capable than the convenience that enters American market. Expert points out that though, America has huge unfavorable balance of trade for Japan, but the business relation of two countries is still two-way development. However, Japanese financial province ends for October 2002 data show , in the past in 10 months day between America the trade of this kind of tradition move mutual, have finished. Not only, the overall trading surplus of Japan contracts , China loses the goods amount of day has increased 9% than last annual the same period , reaches 6. Three hundreds and ten thousands one-hundred millions Yen America loses day goods have only 6. Hundreds and forty thousands one-hundred millions Yen. Chinese a huge sum of foreign exchange reserve and favorable balance of trade have offered for Japan to ask Rmb appreciation " excuse ". Before 2002 years, the Chinese foreign exchange reserve of 11 months has again increased 62,400,000,000 dollars, total wound record land have reached 274,600,000,000 dollars.
６ month １ ９ day, " improve U.S. dollar alliance, "( Coalitionfor a soundDollar) have a meeting in America, discuss whether submit American government employ " ３ ０ １ term " force Rmb to appreciate; The latest report that the committee of European Union issues last month shows , European Union １ ５ country decide , will in this year １ ０ month go to tune China first in " universal preferential system "( GSP) enjoy has export sale of preferential tariff, from the 3 of now. 5% rises arrive , ５ %, ２ ０ ０ ４ annual first half of the year, will cancel formally give China " general kindness system "( " general kindness system " is developed country give the export of developing country finished product and half finished product( include some primary stockses) a kind of universal, non discrimination , non mutually beneficial tariff preference system. Now, whole world has ２ ８ country give China " general kindness system " treatment, in which, European Union １ ５ country exceed the half of total quantity).
In this year ５ month, in Ｇ ８ wealth long meeting on, American wealth length this Nuo put forward the problem of Rmb appreciation for the first time; Enter , ６ month his, more in publicize occasion " urge , " Chinese government change the Rmb system of exchange rate, and ask Rmb appreciation time and again. " sound U.S. dollar alliance " fit , Chinese economy in last few years always with annual ８ % speed increase, the economic growth rate of America do not arrive ３ %, European Union and other some countries low more. This alliance is pointed at claim Chinese government, " on the market of foreign exchange, buy U.S. dollar in large quantities , maintain Rmb low exchange rate artificially, "; This kind of practice is prevented never, " will cause maximum strike for global trading partner, ".
Expert analysis this alliance is put forward through " ３ ０ １ term ", make Rmb appreciate , can not bear American continued unfavorable balance of trade mainly because of American exporter cause. U.S. dollar devaluation should be helpful for American manufacturer in global trading competition to get larger market share , and slows down the increase of American unfavorable balance of trade. But since China adopts the floating system of exchange rate that has management , has fixed the parity relation of U.S. dollar and Rmb basically, so that have formed U.S. dollar and Rmb " same litre demotes together " situation. Show according to the data American trading representative, ２ ０ ０ ２ annual American unfavorable balance of trade have reached ４ ０ ０ ０ much one-hundred millions dollars. China has become American biggest deficit country continuously for 3 years.
Because of America " ３ ０ １ term " the equivocalness of , do not remove American government will it exert the possibility of pressure for Rmb appreciation. So far, American government has initiated in all with " ３ ０ １ term " １ ２ １ take investigation, is in which concerned with the protective case of intellectual property １ ６ from. But according to " ３ ０ １ term " American government may for everything " not fairness( disadvantage in America ) trading behavior punish ".
Even the world of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is economic study with the what sail of political research institute Yuan also point out , America pursue always in trading negotiation " Ｌ Ｉ Ｎ Ｋ "( relation negotiation) principle, also is will a kind of trading problem extension. For example, will the problem of intellectual property and the problem of agricultural products combine carry out trading negotiation. Therefore at present under the background of continued a huge sum of trade deficit, America has possibility very much, connect trading problem and the Rmb system of exchange rate to get up, bargin to China.
２ ０ ０ ４ year is America " in the year of general election ", Bush-administration for get the support of the organization numerous vote of manufacturing industry, besides pass through firstly " hawk style policy ", if " sound U.S. dollar alliance " make decision, ask government employ " ３ ０ １ term " deal with China, have very much may get American government respond.
Once America has emploied " ３ ０ １ term " for Rmb exchange rate, uses to press, will be one of international trading field very not good beginning — — is excuse with the system of exchange rate carry out trading protectionism. At the same time, may still cause " sheep crowd effect " , make Japan, European Union as well as some national ones of Southeast Asia rush in , on, adopt similar measure exert influence for the Rmb system of exchange rate, force Rmb appreciation.
Under the international social universal pressure of public opinion that asks Rmb appreciation, international financial market has also raised the expection for Rmb appreciation. Many analysises are considered , China can in near future will Rmb exchange rate mild on raise ２ % ～ ２ ． ５ %.
International society asks the last purpose of Rmb appreciation, is to hit Chinese product, in the world compete ability. Though " Chinese production " have become the major product of world market, a fatal weakness of Chinese product is to do not form own trademark, now, the market share that takes relies on Chinese product price mainly is cheap.
Long-term, along with the development of Chinese economy, Rmb appreciation is inevitable tendency, but before doing not form the peculiar trademark of China, Rmb nominal exchange rate is unfit for to go on, is adjusted considerably; Even if being faced with huge international pressure, China should also carry out control according to the needs of homeland economic development for exchange rate, otherwise will like Japan and Germany , will self very good economic prospect destroy in once.
What China is in urgent need of is that prove the own system of exchange rate again, is " the floating system of exchange rate that has management ", instead of " watch the system of exchange rate, ". Is too stiff , , politicalize the system of exchange rate, can bring greater negative influence to country. China from １ ９ ９ ４ year begin implement have the floating system of exchange rate of management, but because of １ ９ ９ ７ annual Asian financial crisis occur , Chinese government come forward the guarantor currency exchange rate of the people keep steady, this policy have protected the currency of Asian country do not occur because of malignant trading competition further malignant devaluation, this is Asian undoubtedly , is global financial market stabilize have made important contribution. But hereafter, the exchange rate of China is stabilized always unusually under the role of policy, this also becomes the excuse of current international social attack China.
Therefore what now must carry out to outside proof China is that " the floating system of exchange rate that has management ". This need to strengthen People's Bank of China in order to stand indepently the position of working out and carrying out of currency policy, for its representative Chinese external negotiation increase active right.
" appreciation is expected than appreciation, have more important ". Appreciate , is not fearful , it is adjustment price simply to appreciate; But the expection of appreciation than appreciation, is fearful. China will adjust should be the Rmb system of exchange rate, instead of exchange rate; The purpose of the system adjustment of exchange rate lies in to make it more flexible, for the original system of exchange rate that has management just name. Additionally, still eliminate the expection of Rmb appreciation.
The basic purpose of this Rmb exchange rate that competed is that America hopes the clear surpass currency appreciation of the people , obstruct Chinese merchandise, large-scale enter America. Use to press Rmb appreciation, with America for China anti-dumping policy a, have formed Bush-administration adjust for China trades policy new content
When being of last year , is American wealth long Ao Ni Er, publish , remit the opinion of price for Rmb, since, present wealth length this Nuo also publicize at last put forward the problem of Rmb appreciation, recently America " sound U.S. dollar alliance " again put forward want make Rmb appreciation may be called through " 301 money " is official joint of the people , make concerted efforts to the Rmb problem of exchange rate launch the attack. This provoke the, American leading role of dan(50kg) of key link by Japan Rmb exchange rate compete put on the stage completely, make China become world to pay attention to again center.

The Rmb exchange rate of now compete essence on is still trading problem compete. America uses to press Rmb appreciation, is to think that China carries out , " watch U.S. dollar exchange rate " policy, make the positive effectiveness of U.S. dollar devaluation can not play completely, is " have strengthened the export competition ability of Chinese enterprise maximumly , have stimulated the export of Chinese product, ", devalue especially the U.S. dollar of 2002 years at the same time the, American deficit of foreign trade have made the historical peak value of 435,200,000,000 dollars , reach 103,100,000,000 dollars for China unfavorable balance of trade; For 2002 years America for day, unfavorable balance of trade goes to seventy billions dollars from the sixty-nine billions dollars rising of 2001 years; As the unfavorable balance of trade of European Union goes to 82,100,000,000 dollars from the 61,200,000,000 dollars rising of 2001 years; As Mexican unfavorable balance of trade goes to 37,200,000,000 dollars from the rising of thirty billions dollars of 2001 years.

Force , Rmb appreciation, mark Chinese external economic friction, is facing system from microscopic layer, layer surface spreads. In recent years, Chinese external economic friction is aggravated increasingly, but more return is confined only in microscopic economic friction. After joining WTO, China is in system big adjustment stage, system factor more and more gets solicitude in Chinese economic development. This beautiful day Europe etc. country use press Rmb appreciation, make system economic friction aggravate beginning from the share in Chinese external economic friction.

Face beautiful day, Europe etc. country more and more appreciates for powerful Rmb pressure, Chinese expression have made very sober handling strategy, as " the daily of Wall Street " comment on point out , " the Rmb problem China of exchange rate since having view ". Whether is helpful for economic safety and the national benefit of China is Chinese government handling Rmb exchange rate compete only standard, but no matter how to, this Rmb exchange rate compete is have brought us following hint:

One and China must quickly export market diversity step. Export diversity slogan, we have cried out for many years, but at this late hour, the export of China for American market is depended on degree does not not only reduce , enlarges on the contrary constantly, for 2002 years, China depends on degree for beautiful export from the 3 of 1993. 12% is leapt rise , 5. 65% is the highest value of past 10 years, this is that America starts the capital place of economic friction easily for China.

Therefore China accomplish export market diversity really, must adopt quickly establish the step of the bilateral district of free trade. On the district problem of East Asia of free trade, China may cast aside Japan temporarily completely, with South Korean in advance one step, establish the Sino-South Korean district of free trade, may accelerate the Sino-South Korean trading development of two countries , may again force Japan in adjust on China policy.

2 , China reply beautiful economic friction can not only so as the road of its person still treat the body of its person, return should another Bi path. Develop with the Sino-U.S. trade of now, America in in which get advantage obviously, if China adopt anti-dumping only for the partial merchandises of America reply America for China anti-dumping, last China is hard to reach protect the purpose of self benefit.

In fact, we may strengthen supervisor in America for China service trading aspect completely with investigation for some Americas adopt anti-dumping for China service trading dumping behavior establish the case accuse. So, may reach , is taken orally with America, the trading merchandise production of division system of weighing apparatus the purpose of trading department, make Sino-U.S. trading dispute to is helpful for the direction development of China.

3 dialectics treat the pressure of Rmb appreciation. Rmb appreciation is certainly unfavourable for the merchandise export of China, this can weaken the international competition ability of Chinese export sale. But conversely, see that international society pays attention to the Rmb problem of currency value of China together , have explained the unceasing rising of Chinese international influence just , move towards genuine international currency for future Rmb to create, condition, see from this angle, make the pressure of Rmb appreciation not be a bad thing completely.

Certainly, according to Paul · g Lu Ge Man " eternal triangle " theoretical, a country in the independence of currency policy, the stability of exchange rate and the 3 free mobility essential factors of capital in, can only select in which two. According to China into lifetime agreement China eventually will from " currency policy independence — — — exchange rate stabilize " financial pattern to " currency policy independence — — — capital freedom flow " financial pattern change, realize the option of this change opportunity and the financial safety of maintenance China therefore become very important.

The Yen appreciation of exchange rate changes to analyse

Japan thinks that Chinese economy has 3 big advantages: Low-priced labor force, the level of high technology and low-priced currency. These is any other countries can not at the same time simultaneously some, 3 big factors in Japan may interfere , have only final point — — Rmb exchange rate.

The change of Yen exchange rate have aggravated Asian economic increased about fluctuation. In a word, Asian economic scene Air in Yen appreciation expect ( 1986 — 1988 and 1991 — 1995 and 1999 — 2000) tend to rising, in Yen devaluation issue( 1989 — 1990 and 1996 — 1998) tend to drop , so far such pattern have continued 15 years. At the same time a lot of Asian countries in Yen appreciation expect have gone through the expansion of bubble economy , in Yen devaluation issue have gone through the collapse of bubble economy. The process of appreciating of Yen may divide into 3 stages. First stage is １ ９ ７ １ year ２ month from １ U.S. dollar for ３ ６ ０ Yen appreciation is ３ ０ ６ Yen( fix exchange rate), second stage is １ ９ ７ ３ year ２ month arrive １ ９ ８ ５ year ９ month appreciate step by step is １ U.S. dollar exchange ２ ４ ０ － ２ ５ ０ Yen( float exchange rate) the stage of 3th is １ ９ ８ ５ year " square agreement " so far, Yen appreciation is １ U.S. dollar for ９ ０ － １ ４ ０ Yen.

Is postwar , the estate of Japan develops , economy vigorously develop as well as " international trading upright country " how realize? Is being as long as , ２ ０ the lockin Yen low exchange rate of remaining years realize under background. １ ９ ４ ９ year, exist at that time for controling continued unceasing inflation and reform multiple exchange rate, Japan occupy the help of authorities in America have established " say , odd plan " and " 9 economic stable principles ", will U.S. dollar and the lockin of exchange rate of Yen is １: ３ ６ ０. What is just this regular exchange rate implement , make Japanese estate have gotten the opportunity of returning international market. The foreign trade with this as beginning and Japanese national economy is depended on degree from １ ９ ４ ６ year to １ ９ ５ ０ year １ ２ ． ３ % rise promptly is １ ９ ５ ６ year to １ ９ ６ ０ year ２ ３ ． ４ %. Enter , ６ ０ time rear, Japanese export estate is quick development and the rapid increase of export trade more. ６ ０ the time Japanese export index of early stage year growth rate is １ ７ ． ９ %, later stage is １ ５ ． １ %, nearly increase the two times of speed for the world trade of the same period. The regular exchange rate of this low currency value of Yen is carried out always １ ９ ７ ３ year ２ month. In this duration, Japanese economy has realized high speed increase. In １ ９ ５ １ to １ ９ ５ ５ year , １ ９ ５ ６ to １ ９ ６ ０ year , １ ９ ６ １ to １ ９ ６ ５ year with １ ９ ６ ６ to １ ９ ７ ０ 4 annual intervals the, Japanese increase speed of national economy reach respectively ８ ． ２ % , ８ ． ７ % , ９ ． ７ % with １ ２ ． ２ %.

Deserve to emphasize especially, is Yen in １ ９ ７ １ year ２ the industrial foundation month first appreciation. Since receiving in is as long as ２ ０ remaining years １ U.S. dollar exchange ３ ６ ０ the regular exchange rate of Yen, Japanese export industrial world competition ability rise considerably. １ ９ ６ １ to １ ９ ６ ５ year with １ ９ ６ ６ to １ ９ ７ ０ annual, Japanese export total annual growth rate is respectively １ ７ ． ９ % with １ ５ ． １ %. １ ９ ７ １ year , Japanese ordinary steel and heat roll sheet and the cost of cold-rolled steel board differentiate is equivalent to the American cost of the same period ５ ６ % , ７ ０ % with ６ ８ %. １ ９ ７ ０ annual, Japanese automobile output with １ ９ ６ ０ year compare have increased １ ０ time more than, grow up for the world large automobile export country of 3th. Steel and the international horizontal sign of competition ability of two automobile estates Japanese industrialization stage develop task already is completed basically. Only compel under such industrial background in then America, " new economic policy ", Japan just in １ ９ ７ １ year １ ２ month will U.S. dollar and the exchange rate of Yen from １  ３ ６ ０ adjust is １  ３ ０ ６.
From ７ ０ time initial stage begin , Japan have accelerated self industrial structure further " high processing degree melts " , " high open degree melts " process, have become the powerful competitor of America in automobile etc. industrial field. １ ９ ７ ５ year, Japan leap the world first large country of house automobile export, export quantity reach ２ ６ ８ ten thousands. １ ９ ８ ０ year, Japan export automobile to America with is respectively from the quantity of American import automobile ３ ９ ４ ． ７ ten thousands with １ ． ０ ５ ten thousands, present is wide proportion. １ ９ ８ １ year, Japan though carry out for western market " act on one's own to restrict, ", automobile export still reach ６ ０ ５ ten thousands; Queue up the federal Germany of world automobile export second position in the same year, export only, ２ １ ５ ten thousands, claim to be the America of automobile large country always same year have exported only ６ ９ ten thousands. Is just so a serious not balanced market general layout to cause, is as long as the day of several year hereafter, beautiful automobile trading friction. In this process, Japanese government has adopted the policy of foreign trade of " empty promise really not to " to give homeland estate development, strive for larger time room. １ ９ ８ ０ year ５ month, day beautiful both sides reach encouragement Japanese automobile enterprise set up the agreement of factory to American investment. But this weak agreement does not nearly form what binding for enterprise, Japanese automobile factory home does not be also set up somewhat to American investment the enthusiasm of factory. １ ９ ８ １ year after, day America between nearly annual for Japan " autonomous restriction " problem negotiate. But day the serious unbalanced condition of beautiful automobile trade do not get the torsion of foundation , America enlarge constantly for the trade deficit of day, occupy American market especially the automobile product big act of Japan, make the trading contradiction of two countries intensify at last. Year is answered the delay of one year lets American have lost patience at last. １ ９ ８ ５ year ９ month, in America plan , America , day , Britain , law and the wealth length of original federal Germany and center is all right grow in the square restaurant of New York convene secret meeting, estimate high for U.S. dollar and American huge regular income and expenses deficit problem, negotiate take joint action, reduce U.S. dollar for Yen and the parity of European currency. This is the origin that " square agreement " produce. Hereafter, Yen appreciation has entered the stage of 3th.
After " square agreement " come into effect , is that spread effect makes U.S. dollar parity drop first , form market identification sense soon afterwards, countries take the initiative to coordinate intervention on the market of foreign exchange , throw U.S. dollar , buy the Yen, German mark etc. or currency of home made goods. This guides U.S. dollar further to be declining. Between the decade of 1996 Yen with U.S. dollar exchange proportion from the 250 of 1985: 1 last litres goes to 87: Appreciate 1, near 3 times. Pawn , America thinks if U.S. dollar is declining again continuously, causes possibility , " disastrous consequence " America is also more hard to avoid than disaster, this just comes forward initiatively to intervene, make U.S. dollar pick up. As well known hereafter 1997 have broken out Asian financial crisis , just develop a international financial crisis soon afterwards.
After Yen appreciates rapidly, Japan carries out super low interest rate to attempt offset the negative effect brought by Yen appreciation, — — — go to May 1989 from February 1987, 2. The super low interest rate of 5% is carried out for two years in 3 months. This directly buries hint for " bubble economy ". Under super low interest rate, Japan has raised the upsurge of installation cost of a ship another ship, enterprise increases strategical investment with full attention, stop since Yen appreciation is hard to be , after product, or shift the national production of low wages … … have so caused domestic economic overheat and foam unprecedented expansion.
Additionally, now, it is successful that the western developed country besides Asia may be called , they have walked out of mostly recession. What have satirical meaning very much is that then a British magazine is even publication with " appreciate Japan, " first language, point out world economy can get rid of the economic crisis of the later stage of 80 decade of 20 century only receive in Japanese economy strong increase tendency.
Therefore may say , in the 80 decade of 20 century the wild whirlwind of second half issue Yen in look now, for Japan is even entire Asia so the unfortunate beginning of 90 decade " bubble economy " vanish for the Japanese economy of the final 10 years of 20 century have gone up a level of shadow. Arrive , now 13 years in the past , Japanese economic declining tendency still, do not shake again in the past male wind, it foundation for source in this. Now Japanese return in enjoy this bitter fruit, who also say do not settle when have been. What is more unfortunate is that this layer of shadow disappears always do not go , last evolution is a grave financial crisis. Cause Asian more in the absolute position of Asia since Japan is economic, financial crisis " trend " whole world, develop become a international financial crisis … … completely these, must say is directly related with " square agreement ".

For these above viewpoints, I does not dare to agree. I thinks that Yen appreciates is should , mistake is the method of appreciation. Since Yen appreciates too rapid( multiply to a ordinary person do rocket lift-off like, if do not carry out ample preparation, will have 99. The person of 9% will make problem in lift-off process ), cause plenty of export enterprises to arise the product loss of bedding face in short time, export enterprise is also the pillar estate of Japanese economy, so arise above problem is also natural.

Rmb exchange rate slow steady appreciation do good to is larger than fraud

The floating system of exchange rate of Chinese present enforcement that has management is supported mainly through currency and the political promise of government, guarantee exchange rate, actually is With U.S. dollar complete " pothook ", It is weak to have over emphasized management and float to embody. This makes personal investor and the enterprise of China reduce greatly for the susceptibility of exchange rate virtually. Therefore take affect along with Rmb in the world, strengthen , Chinese government should first reform for the system of exchange rate of now, the system of exchange rate " not politicalize "-- emphasize market take affect for the decision of exchange rate.
According to contain high( Asia) the expection of economic research department personage, overflow according to present market forward contract price reflection, Rmb have 7 or 8 appreciate into opportunity about 1%. Since asking the major basis of Rmb appreciation is " favorable balance of trade and the foreign exchange reserve of Chinese a huge sum ", recently, People's Bank of China and Department of Commerce have begun begin urgent research countermeasure.
The news that is all right from center says , those credit good Chinese enterprises are soon expected to purchase foreign bond with the own income of foreign exchange. This is helpful to change the market of foreign exchange to let is larger than beg center is all right have to be compelled buy in situation, so alleviate the pressure of Rmb appreciation.
Center is all right this straight stipulation in proposal enact probably in some months in the future, the golden pipe of Hong Kong department( Ｈ Ｋ Ｍ Ａ) will act as this business clear organization. According to current stipulation the income of foreign exchange of Chinese enterprise the most of unique needs are all right to center exchange Rmb to raise foreign exchange reserve and domestic currency supply.
New plan will be still relaxed restrictions of for central national debt register settlement, besides the sea of company's member enterprise investment restriction. Should settle accounts , company possesses １ ２ ０ ０ position organization member, in which most of is non financial organization. The amount possibility been concerned with by this business is reached ５ ０ ０ one-hundred millions ～ ８ ０ ０ one-hundred millions dollars.
A personage of Department of Commerce also reveals , the policy research room of Department of Commerce is carrying out demonstration for the adjustment Chinese structure of import and export; Chinese very possible change is carried out , is long is export mainly, the policy of foreign trade, increase , for import foster intensity.
According to the data of State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Chinese present foreign exchange reserve reaches ３ １ ６ ０ one-hundred millions dollars, is is next only to the global second big foreign exchange reserve of Japan country. Though the president week little river of People's Bank of China recent in world clear bank annual meeting on express , Rmb exchange rate will keep steady. But on world, ask the action of Rmb appreciation, is steping up to go on.

The high flourishing Asian director general manager who pays attention to Chinese currency system reform always simultaneously chief economist recklessly Zu Liu think , initiate the Rmb weight of exchange rate estimate and maintain the constant person of present situation, return actually in appeal the system of exchange rate of U.S. dollar actual pothook and continuity Rmb, this two waies not only for solve global economy is faced with problem useless, return can in in cause injury for a long period for Chinese economy.

He thinks that China is now more sensible, is also that more feasible one chooses item, is " system reform ", is with well-known set actually have the floating system of exchange rate of management, replace the current regular system of exchange rate. The Chinese current system of exchange rate is the floating system of exchange rate that has management , Rmb is exchanged the exchange rate of U.S. dollar is stabilized always in 8. 28 ∶ the level of 1. Have expert, think , the system of exchange rate of China what is nominal last only have the floating system of exchange rate of management , is the regular system of exchange rate actually.

Since in February 2002, U.S. dollar is from highest a little devaluation , on world, a lot of economist and government ask China one after another value for Rmb currency value estimate , in which grow salt river with Japanese wealth straight 10 Lang voice biggest. These " weight is estimated , is sent " think , an expert on China surpass is land will Rmb keep on weak tendency level, so strengthen its export competition ability, make American regular project deficit increase increasingly, arouse other world national appearances deflation.

Concerning China, it is long-standing that what should carry out the flexible system of exchange rate discuss , in which, had been considered , a important restriction factor is the open problem of capital project. The regular project of China has been relieved , but capital project does not be still relieved completely, under this kind of condition, do you carry out the flexible system of exchange rate , can cause the demand of foreign exchange to have no true reflection to come out? For instance, a enterprise thinks of overseas investment , but controls because of foreign exchange, this kind of demand embodies in market the price of exchange rate that does not so form , can become , from market, do you let beg the floating exchange rate of decision?

For this, author thinks: Rmb is done float , exchange rate relieve capital project together have no essence and the relation of necessity between them, this two problems can not mix in confusion. Relieve Rmb exchange rate , may carry out for capital project still, the control of necessity, this two and not contradiction. Under this kind of condition, decide exchange rate by people's bank, instead of decide exchange rate from financial trade, this is complete may.

If not relieving exchange rate always, no matter domestic enterprise goes to overseas investment or QFII enters Chinese market, has no the risk of exchange rate , has only morals risk, they have no the risk management consciousness of exchange rate. If when capital project complete relieving after relieve exchange rate again, that is very terror ( the condition of Japan is ). We will let each import enterprise, export enterprise and each bank know , not favourable rate risk still has the risk of exchange rate. So, is helpful for them to raise risk management ability. Additionally a more outstanding problem is , as present Rmb have been underestimated , once relieve the system of exchange rate, Rmb may have certain appreciation , that for foreign capital and foreign trade and even the A site of the stock market can again produce what influence? What foreign capital see to China is that the basic surface of Chinese economy includes marketing company and the development of the stock market and the high speed increase of Chinese economy to administer improvement is not and so on the currency of value that had been underestimated; Exchange rate does not be important factor absolutely.

Who is drawing out money keep to claim to be " is global old big ", the daily operation of American government? It is the masses of taxpayer of United States of America that what take for granted reply. This reply and not whole for. Because current American federal financial deficit is huge , light is leant the contribution of taxpayer is still not enough to open to sell, thus have to lift dabt in large quantities. Is oldest creditor who? Is Japanese, with China. The foreign exchange reserve of Chinese one-hundred millions dollarses more than 3000 what great part buy is that American government government bonds. China has become the one of oldest creditor of the global most powerful empire. This fact has shown the international influence and economic strength that China strengthens increasingly. Last year, China is next only to America for global economic increased contribution; For global trading increased contribution, is next only to America and Japan. Rely on economic strength to speak, Rmb have also gotten the larger international words language right of general affairs naturally , this is meddlesome.

Even so, but in current, attempt guide Rmb appreciate considerably, do not have realistic condition. Rmb cannot be still exchanged at present with freedom, its exchange rate forms mechanism is away from genuine market to melt, still have , not Xiao De is away from. Early in the March of this year the director of State Administration of Foreign Exchange Guo set up settle show clearly, will work for maintenance Rmb exchange rate stabilize basically, as is necessary with possibility, can consider enlarge the floating scope of Rmb exchange rate further. Announce recently, center is all right the currency policy committee report of first quarter also emphasize , change the current policy of exchange rate inadvertently. Therefore can not let Rmb exchange rate come to a sudden change, but the travel of the rising of Rmb will go down with mild way continuity. I suggests to so go on:

First, government will make clear that the policy mechanism of exchange rate of China is genuine " The floating system of exchange rate that has management ", determine this year from the annual beginning of exchange rate of management department The standard central value of exchange rate The permission market of foreign exchange goes up fluctuation with this as center, range is 3%, if have the trade of half in year, day is concluded in the location of rising 3% next year The standard central value of exchange rate For on adjust 3% , otherwise solitary.

If exchange rate rises every year , 3% needs the Rmb exchange rate of 24 years, will just turn one. The rise of the Japanese decade of exchange rate the distance of we will go to 35 years then can so reduce the change of exchange rate consummately, greatly until 50 years affect for the disadvantage of economy. Opposite because of the annual rising 3% of exchange rate, for import enterprise , cost will drop every year 3%, profit space enlarge is helpful for enterprise enlarge operation; As exporting enterprise, because of cost annual increase, 3% will be forced make enterprise elimination fall behind , product and increase product additional value high merchandise export is helpful for enterprise to set up trademark strategy. As plenty of industrial raw materials produce enterprise, because of the price of our country of primary stocks, cause little coalpit etc. 5 little high, enterprise prohibits strictly more than, its source lie in favourable may apply. If the price of raw material drops every year, 3% need to go to 5 years for 3 years only, these 5 little enterprises fall behind because of technology , cost high nature will have been eliminated.

If carry out foreign exchange really Is genuine " The floating system of exchange rate that has management ", need to do work many, I in here for " throw brick to draw jade "!

An Gang on August 14,2003 in Shenzhen

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