Hong Kong is falling from the sky the pearl of east! Can she still replay extraordinary splendor?

An Gang ( cool brain An) compose

Deliver the special head of Hong Kong, Dong build Mr. China and the open letter of Hong Kong's residence high-grade official

Hong Kong is called as the pearl of east by people! Is the thing square cold war of 20 century time is benefited. Western capitalist society to demonstrate the economic strength of capitalism to the socialist camp of east, in the around region of the socialist national China of Asia, have fostered the splendid model of 4 capitalist economic developments, have formed , well-knownly South Korean, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore the miracle of economic growth --- - 4 Asian economic little dragons.

Enter 20 century for 80 decade, under the lead of Deng Xiaoping, China has begun restructuring the economy and carries out external reforming and opening up to the outside world. Hong Kong has become economic financial bridge and the important industry and business of continent connection overseas because of its special situation and social system , has undertaken the alternating and financing task of continent staple commodity, it is oldest profit person that Hongkong's trader has also become continent oldest investor therefore. Until 1997 when Hong Kong regresses motherland, influence and the strength of economic integration of Hong Kong reach the highest summit of history. Suddenly between , day have accident wind cloud, 1998 years Asian financial crisis erupt completely affect eastern pearl --- - Hong Kong, cause the building price of Hong Kong is declining , a lot of persons buy building after become negative asset, lose biggest is just the elite stratum of Hong Kong. Since the economic structure of Hong Kong is not reasonable the ill cat that causes economic basic damage to have become economy. Have to fall, the phoenix of grass is not as good as the feeling of chicken.

In financial crisis occur the rear person of Hong Kong do not respond the call of government like Korean rescue local economy actively, is adopt escape method. Hongkong's person to economize expense one after another north last inland consuming. Will Shenzhen door may fall Luo Hu of sparrow commercial dead city become inch earth the business of inch gold prosperously is a clear proof. According to information reflection, until 2002 years base Hong Kong has the above person-time of sixty millions to inland consuming every year , reaches the H.K. Dollar of one hundred and twenty billions every year according to the average consumer H.K. Dollar / person-time idea of 2000 Yuan, the 17,143 Yuan consumer H.K. Dollar of average per capita ( calculate according to the population of Hong Kong of seven millions). If this money all in the consuming of Hong Kong, so Hong Kong a lot of current economic problems can solve.

In Hong Kong, make money and go to inland consuming to become the new fashion of the person consuming of Hong Kong, from this the service field snow that gives Hong Kong on add frost, layer resident unemployment rate also unceasing creat high, social poor rich gap again also in enlarge constantly. At the beginning of 2003 SARS in Asian tendency plunder again make the travel field of Hong Kong again --- - house leakage Feng through night rain. Though The government of Hong Kong broad open wealth road, in center sustain vigorously, allow inland resident visit port freely. It is a cup of waterwheel salary that this is afraid the economic recovery for Hong Kong, far water do not understand near thirsty.

I thinks , Asian financial crisis and the influence of SARS for the economy of Hong Kong, now, return , is leather wound , do not still injure tendon after all for the key economy of Hong Kong to move bone. But between the future decade beginning from 2004 years, Hong Kong will be faced with five big storm ( do not contain as SARS etc. cannot foresee burst incident), each storm that will soon occur is fatal strike for the economy of Hong Kong. If the government of Hong Kong can not now take precautions the economy of Hong Kong die surely, undoubtedly eastern jewel fall from the sky also is the result of necessity:

Fatal storm one and the Taiwan general election of beginning of 2004: According to the investigation of public opinion of now, the opportunity that " link , Song match " win is compared , is big. If link Song win must carry two bank direct three direct links of trade, mail, and air and shipping services across the Taiwan Straits forward , now change trains through Hong Kong and Macau millions of annual / person-time passengers will not change trains again. Also, goods etc. product will not be also changed trains again, a lot of Taiwan business organizations that establish in Hong Kong will also move continent because of having had no business or recall Taiwan. If say that Asian financial crisis is extrusion foam only for the building price of Hong Kong, so this impact will make the business of real estate of Hong Kong also want delamination skin. Have possibility, is the land field of Hong Kong from lag behind demand , become absolute superfluous climacteric. The profession estimate that receives impact has: Food service, hotel, retail etc. travel field, the development of real estate and sale and taxi field is transferred to civilian work in freight transport, aerial transport service, accounting legal etc. professional service and investment service and so on; It is expected that will have ten thousands of persons to be faced with the building price of unemployment crisis and Hong Kong, it is 2 to 3 to have possibility and then fall;

Fatal storm 2 and the Guangzhou new airport of the end of June 2004 start using: Early in July 2002, I puts forward plan to Shenzhen municipal Party committee and municipal government , hopes to purchase to control share Shenzhen airport, since policy reason and inland are led , value more to claim " sea is gone back to ", personage is bad for domestic talent total feeling level. I in Shenzhen airport operation reshuffle commercial specification In have put forward Shenzhen airport reshuffle " 9 big broad axes " scheme Though because of various reason, so far Shenzhen aspect is disagreed on purchase plan , but is in which First broad axe Plan with accept by Shenzhen government begin enforcement. The airport of Hong Kong is also used with me First broad axe Identical content, it is same to may be called hero to see summary. Since the airport level of management of continent is low , now the transportation ability basic saturation of Guangzhou white cloud airport and Shenzhen airport. But they again do not be willing to pay consuming use, invent personally Airport management new theoretical mathematics model, " can will the passenger handling capacity of a current runway from the annual person-time / year of seventeen millions upper limit, rise to the 93,350,000 passenger person-time / of handling capacity year ".

Guangzhou new airport will increase plenty of rich transportation abilities after the input operation of the end of June 2004. From south navigation, put in the international straight navigation of freight transport in Shenzhen, is very fiery , also reflect that Guangzhou new airport has ability, take over completely the inland that need to change trains from Hong Kong , all tasks of freight transport and traffic expense uses , is still more low than transit Hong Kong. If such matter occur , plenty of international transnational corporations establish buying center or agency in Hong Kong have become drawing snake add foot. These organizations will inevitably also want to withdraw Hong Kong , will produce important impact for aerial field and the land of Hong Kong, link other service industries can not also have a narrow escape;

Fatal storm 3 and the goods cupboard pier of 2007 years: Is transferred to civilian work in the goods cupboard of Hong Kong, is pillar estate always, because of America wait for a lot of western countries have for continent merchandise import so so various restriction, a lot of continent products must pass through the transfer or rework of Hong Kong. Though through the goods cupboard of Hong Kong not only, delivery time will be prolonged , and will increase 30% to 50% traffic expenses to use, but continent produces manufacturer also can only this.

Press China join the condition of lifetime trade, all these restriction terms will be canceled before 2008 years. Hong Kong, one is obstructed can the pier of freight transport of railway still become tap? Do you still have the necessity that exists? Have had no the pillar of freight transport, more international organization can withdraw Hong Kong, this again bleeds in Hong Kong wound go up stab a knife again. Plenty of Hongkong's persons will lose job , take in and decrease again, building price has to again fall again half is bought after causing 90 decade building is wanted completely for Hongkong's person of building bedding bag, negative asset family will go to three-hundreds thousands household from the household increases more than ten thousands of now more. Such condition occur , Hong Kong you can still bear? City gate catches fire and brings disaster to fishpond, perhaps, Shenzhen does not also have a narrow escape;

Fatal storm 4 , offer legal accounting etc. the fantasy of service for inland vanish: Hong Kong weigh law and accounting etc. professional service always same world conform , can offer fine service for inland, CEPA plan is that the strong requirement in Hong Kong goes on expression.

Accounting professional service , In 2000, center asks domestic appear on the market , stock company must invite boundary outside accounting organization to carry out financial audit. Marketing company's Hong Yuan of home stock( 000,562) is home only a satisfy the company of condition, have invited overseas accounting organization for the first time in 2000 years annual report carry out financial audit. Domestic audit Hong Yuan stock profit is 0. The / of 1576 Yuan share and abroad are audited Hong Yuan stock profit is 0. The / of 64 Yuan share. The calculation of domestic and international two gap is what reach 4 times huge? If mutual audit is correct , the price/earning ratio of domestic 40 times should be equal to the price/earning ratio of foreign 10 times. In then, the expert of Hong Kong, some experts of home and sea go back to style in criticize domestic price/earning ratio is continent 80 times high ( 40 times) , America just 20 times( is equal to ), as well as a only big not good, American equity scatter advanced and so on, do not understand this copy of report completely reflect important information. Somebody has still become therefore " news figure ". Have misled central leading decision , make Chinese the stock market go to boundless bear road since then, central government some of save city also have no merit return. Chinese the stock market have fallen into share price is declining half and price/earning ratio rise on the contrary( current 41 times) blame circle.

For 2001 years 911 incidents occur , have changed world economic operation orbit, expose go abroad the serious problem in outside accounting system, have occured therefore safely and so on incident, 5 world famous meetings sum the financial audit report of company discover completely have problem. Center has stoped originally planned requirement resolutely all marketing companies must invite boundary outside accounting organization to carry out the work of financial audit, make marketing company economize every year to invite boundary, outside financial audit cost reaches Bai one-hundred millions Yuan huge( because of pull mount for American government unsatisfaction vent , redeem loss every year for the shareholder of China Bai one-hundred millions Yuan). Those so called " sea is gone back to " let the shareholder loss of fellow countryman of China go up Wan Yi just. Is really The heart of Si Ma Zhao --- - disrupt have the socialism of Chinese characteristic Historical fact proves again ----" green turtle " is not definitely traitor, but traitor happens surely from " sea go back to style ". " sea is gone back to " have become the cradle of traitor really!

After giving up overseas accounting pattern in the advantage service of the accountant of Hong Kong again in that?

Legal service , For 2001 years, China joins Shi Mao, when deciphering , Shi Mao discovers in file that Chinese enterprise and foreign enterprise occur dispute , can not use Chinese when needing arbitration , can only use English, French and Spaniard writing. From this, may find out that the law of the Hong Kong of good elephent has the service of bright future , can fact be such? If press Shi Mao completely, rule does not make have Chinese, we need to pay probably every year billions of even go up Bai one-hundred millions beautiful round court costs use , and have possibility, occur using international lawsuit, covert swallow the incident of state-owned asset. From this, cause in large quantities state-owned asset to run off, behavior, central government will not supervise. Because as soon as sentence English is not good , had been deceived , all enterprise leads may shirk direct responsibility.

Translation problem is serious problem, translate to make mistakes, will inevitably want to pay out heavy price. The classical theory of socialism is " capital theory ", " capital theory " marrow is " surplus axiology says ". Mark is thought , is pointed out: " work to pay money, this is the knowledge of mistake, namely, worker works , capitalist pays him money , seems that it is incorrect for this to have no what, but actually this do not be " exchange of equal value ", worker create for capitalist labour wealth is more bright than self get pay, is as a worker labour income of one day ８ Yuan Qian, he is capitalist in one day create profit far far more than ８ Yuan, may be １ ６ Yuan, may be also ２ ４ Yuan, return possibility higher. This what can be " exchange of equal value "? So this extra part this worker wages besides ８ Yuan Huo １ ６ Yuan Huo higher amount, is " surplus value ", capitalist exploit freely have gone. " according to such translation theoretical content, the former Soviet Union and Chinese etc. a large quantities of countries guide socialist construction with this theory tens of years. Result is that the Soviet Union has given up , China have reformed , socialist planned economic quilt fact proof have problem. But after all problem in there?

Mark is thought " capital theory " should be correct, so, is that we understand on translation surely, is not accurate , , thought have problem. According to mark, think in " capital theory " to indicate, happen , " surplus axiology say " have gone on personally again theoretical correction: " surplus value " is that capital is added manage , benifit repayment, capital is factor of production , manage is transformation condition, is the basic law of the increment of wealth of society. Capital is the basic condition of large-scale production , manage is the marrow of benifit, level of management is high , " surplus value " for big. Socialism is to want the development of high limit " surplus value " will produce " surplus value " benefit human society. Not our original translation will eliminate capitalist exploitation worker " surplus value ".

So the theory of classics we can translate mistake , now hit the lawsuit of foreign language more moreover. I believe recklessly president and warm Premier can solve this problem surely between term. If Serve Chinese as the law of international arbitration language and Hong Kong, is advantage also in there?

Fatal storm 5 and international financial center fictitious melt: The position of the international financial center of Hong Kong has certain particularity, reality is international financial field serve China agency. As the freedom of Rmb is exchanged and the popularity of ecommerce, global financial central region melt problem will desalinate , global financial center step by step will fictitious trade for a central many electrons platform. Bring any time and any place on world, may directly participate in financial trade service. When supporting a final fort of the economy of Hong Kong, " are you financial and central " drive off Ran collapse , Hong Kong you will how to reply?

This hits five times, if Hong Kong has once, can not bear , since the economy of dominoes effect and Hong Kong will be precarious.

To get rid of difficult condition, first, the person of Hong Kong must put straight location. Hong Kong is to serve inland and be that inland connects the bridge of overseas, do not be continent serve Hong Kong. How to pull inland person and overseas merchant ( attract ), it is the only method that Hong Kong gets rid of economic difficult condition that Hong Kong does business. Only hoping that Hongkong's person is besides Hong Kong's consuming , must still attract the ten millions of / person-time commercial passengers of home and overseas every year , port carries out commercial campaign. How to do you then can attract? Think personally, airport service level, charge difference in degree and management efficiency are crucial , are to vigorously develop the tap of the economy of Hong Kong.

Airport is a special profession of monopoly, at the same time, airport is also that a burgeoning thing flows out center, is local economic development take off guarantee. From 9. 11 after incident, global aerial field gets unprecedented strike, the most of Air Liners arise loss. At the beginning of 2003, the non ceremony that occurs in Asia ( SARS) are again scattered on the aerial field wound of recession salt. In the transportation totle drilling cost of aerial field, the total cost that Air Liner pays airport takes aerial operation cost is 30% to 60%. Everybody first can will airport cost close up to 0, who is save the big saver of entire aerial field, own fly to the route of this airport will become gold navigate. Will inevitably bring plenty of stream of people and thing to local economy from this to flow, the week with this airport as center everywhere district will inevitably be whole world have competitive region. Now, a lot of airports have got charge preferential scheme , every airport does not still go to non short soldier merely appearance receive extent.

Aerial field is not only a profession , is a and industrial more. Aerial estate is not only simple traffic transport service , and is a kind of new economy, is even a lifeline and industrial pillar of region. Airport is the train of this industrial economic development head For to " Water can carry boat, can also cover boat " like. Along with the thorough of economic global unifinication, the development of ecommerce makes the role of city financial central position desalinate further, between city competition will show mainly in high technology and high additional value estate and shortcut thing to flow out service, on. Therefore the competition of global aerial field will be more intense. As the airport of aerial industrial important platform, will have no , avoidable will join competition. Since airport is its level of management and the profession of relative monopoly the difference in degree of and service cost will decide this airport week the region economic competitive ability of time difference in degree. The city of which one can first serve airport 0 charge, he will be the bellwether of future economic development. This for to in battlefield on, who can get commanding elevation, who have active right on battlefield like.

Now all global airports though, condition is not identical each , but does not still begin to have competitive relation basically between airport. Its major reason is that past airport is the service platform of city only, do not still arrive , not participate in competitive necessity. Now, condition is not same, enterprise production product and the average cost gap that offers service are being reduced. From space, it is tens kilometers of that saying , past cost near region have only , extend to now, hundreds kilometers of is even thousands kilometers of. See from enterprise profit, now, profit rich product has additional value , is high , quantity lose and ask delivery time short etc. characteristic. The speed of transportation time and the difference in degree of aerial cost necessity is investor option invest in the major factor of land one. Since airport construction investment is huge , in a city, builds 2 above airports to carry out competition, what is not sensible behavior lets airport compete mutually result is impossible is that pair wins.

The earth is round , has got daytime and dark night under the role of the sun, this has produced time difference. Along with the development of economic global unifinication, analyse from economy, global needs 3 large scale aerial centers: American one, a Europe and a Asia. In Asia now, have Japanese Tokyo, Singapore and Hong Kong in competition , is economic and constantly strong along with China, the position of Hong Kong will show suddenly. If the option of Hong Kong is given up , so Shenzhen and Shanghai will have the opportunity join competitive ranks. Deer dead who hand will be First have ability will airport service cost fall for 0 , and airport return can not the city of loss.

I uses to do, is good Olympic Games As example the importance that comes to demonstration airport management innovation. Since Beijing gets 2008 years Olympic Games Sponsor right, compatriots does not know Olympic Games Person have no basically. However, know who, is " Peter · You Bo Luo think " Person that is rarity of rarities.

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