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证券市场的“财富放大理论”、是“交换产生财富”的主要表现
此方案能否实施的关键是流通股股东是否同意无偿转让30%的流通股股权以交换安岗的《第六代管理方法·安氏理论》。也就是人们是否认可《第六代管理方法·安氏理论》的价值与交换的股票是等价的。交换后深圳机场股价能站在24.29元吗?
在人们的观念中一向提倡要等价交换,交换不能产生财富。我国著名经济学家茅于轼先生就不同意这个观点;他老人家就说“交换产生财富”。本人举双手赞成并坚决支持这个观点。我们用养羊与造斧头来进行说明:先按等价交换理论设定“一只羊可交换一把斧头”那么一只羊与一把斧头的价值是相同的。
一个养羊的人,当他需要一把斧头时,有二种办法可以获得:办法一、自己产生,那么他将要付出养十头羊的时间和精力才能产生出斧头;办法二、用所养的一只羊去交换一把斧头。同样的造斧头的人,想吃羊也有二个办法:1、用造十把斧头的时间和精力去养羊;2、用一把斧头去交换一只羊。
对养羊的人来说,只要获得一把斧头的代价是九只羊以下就可以接受;同样的对造斧头得人来说,只要获得一只羊的代价是九把斧头以下就可以接受。现在只要一只羊就可以交换一把斧头,对养羊得人来说,节约了九只羊;对造斧头的人来说节约了九把斧头。如果无利可言,人们又如何要去交换。节约的九只羊或九把斧头实际上就是相对增加财富。所以我们说“交换产生财富”。其相对财富产生的核心就是不同的人他们的产生成本及效率不同。
因为养羊容易、当羊太多时,那么在市场上就可能要2只羊或更多的羊才能交换一把斧头,带来养羊人财富的相对减少或造成造斧头的人财富地增加;反之孑然。
在企业经营上也同样如此,我们用买入1000股深圳机场股票来进行说明:假定你17元买入了1000股深圳机场股票,投入资金1.7万元(为计算方便,不考虑税费)。无偿转让300股后,你还有700股深圳机场股票,每股成本从17元增加到24.29元。只要重组上市后开盘价在24.29元以上,对流通股股东而言并没有任何的经济损失。
深圳机场股份公司加深圳机场(集团)2001年的利润总额估计不到5亿元,扣除投资收益不足3.5亿元。合计净资产在50亿元以内。实际净资产收益率在10%以下。深圳机场使用降低深圳机场(集团)利润来保证深圳机场股份公司的利润增长。
由于我们的收购重组,在对深圳机场进行“九板斧”的经营改造后,预计将使深圳机场每年增加10亿元的利润,按第一种收购方案重组后总股本69989万股计算,每股增加收益1.43元。对非流通股来说一元就是一元,对流通股而言则大不相同。假定证券市场是低投机的投资市场每股收益增加1.43元将使股价再上升28.6元(按20倍市盈率计);如果是合适投机的投资市场每股收益增加1.43元将使股价再上升57.2元(按40倍市盈率计);如果是大量投机的投资市场每股收益增加1.43元将使股价再上升85.8元(按60倍市盈率计);如果是过度投机的投资市场每股收益增加1.43元将使股价再上升114.4元(按80倍市盈率计)。这就是证券市场的“财富放大理论”,是“交换产生财富”的主要表现方式。
我国证券市场十余年的发展,有过几百次的收购、重组行为。有网络概念、高科技概念、高校概念、软件概念、民营概念、入世概念......等等等等。抛开这些概念不讲,其核心应该只有一个,那就是“利润增加”。至今没有一家通过炒作概念而使上市公司的经营业绩得到真正大幅度提高。炒作概念只是把上市公司作为银行提款机、唐僧肉,不吃白不吃。
我所进行的收购工作,没有什么概念,要有就是利润增加概念。如果达到三年利润翻番目标,流通股股东手中的股票每股最少也值40元,如果这期间大盘暴涨,那么每股过百元也有可能。如此经营十年后将达到每股收益过十元,你的财富将因此而放大20倍甚至上百倍。本人在2002年初所写的“十年陈股香,赚它壹百倍”讲的就是这个道理。
在美国有一个经典的投资故事:有一个靠拣破烂为生的老太太,死在了垃圾旁,她的亲属在整理老太太留下地遗物时发现了一张一百美圆的 IBM 公司股票。这张一百美圆的 IBM 公司股票,经过专家计算它的价值是1400万美圆。时间只用了50年,其价值增加了14万倍。这样的投资效率在中国就不会再发生吗?
用一句话总结,只要你相信证券市场的“财富放大理论”、也就是“交换产生财富”。那么企业重组后,股价必能上涨到24.29元以上。
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2002/7/9
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Security market " it is theoretical that wealth is enlarged " , is " exchange produces wealth " show mainly
This scheme whether implement key is circulation share shareholder whether agree the circulation of free tranfer 30% share equity install hillock with exchange " 6 generation management method · install theory ". Also is people whether approve " 6 generation management method · install theory " worth and exchange stock is equivalent. After exchanging Shenzhen airport share price can stand in 24. 29 Yuan
Advocate always in the idea of people Want exchange of equal value, exchange can not produce wealth Famous economist Mao Yu Shi of our country sir disagrees on this viewpoint; His old person home says " exchange produces wealth ". Lift both hands personally to agree with and support this viewpoint firmly. We use to raise sheep with make axe carry out explanation: Set first according to the theory of exchange of equal value " a sheep may exchange a axe ", so, the value of a sheep and a axe is identical.
A person who raises sheep is him to need a axe , have 2 kinds of method may get: Method one and self produce , so, he will pay out energy and the time of raising 10 sheeps to produce, make axe; Method 2 , use raise a sheep exchange a axe. The same person who makes axe wants to eat sheep also has 2 methods: 1, use energy and the time of making 10 of axes to raise sheep; 2, exchange a sheep with a axe.
For raise the person of sheep , get the price of a axe only is 9 sheeps below may accept; Same for make axe get person , get the price of a sheep only is 9 of axes below may accept. Now so long as a sheep may exchange a axe for raise sheep get person , have economized 9 sheeps; As making the person of axe, have economized 9 of axes. If have no advantage may speech, people how to again want exchange. The 9 sheep or 9 of axes that economizes are to increase wealth relatively actually. So, we say " exchange produces wealth ". The core that its relative wealth produces is the person of difference they produce cost and efficiency difference.
Because raise sheep to be easy, , is sheep too much , so in the market may want 2 sheep or more sheep then can exchange a axe, bring raise the relative decreasing of sheep person wealth or cause make the person wealth of axe land increase; Otherwise, is solitary.
On enterprise operation, is also same and such , we use to buy 1000 Shenzhen airport stocks, carry out explanation: Assume that your 17 Yuan has bought 1000 Shenzhen airport stock and input capital 1. Seventy thousands Yuan ( do not consider tax cost for calculating convenience). Free tranfer 300 after, you still have 700 Shenzhen airport stocks, each cost go to 24 from the increase of 17 Yuan. 29 Yuan. After reshuffle appears on the market the price of opening quotation in 24. More than 29 Yuan, convection clear share shareholder , have no any pecuniary loss
Shenzhen airport stock company deepens Zhen airport( group) the profit total of 2001 years do not deduct investment profit insufficient 3 to five-hundreds millions Yuan probably. Five-hundreds millions Yuan. Amount to net asset within five billions Yuan. Actual net asset earning rate is below 10%. Shenzhen airport is used , reduce Shenzhen airport( group ) profit to guarantee the profit increase of Shenzhen airport stock company.
Because of we purchase reshuffle, in carry out for Shenzhen airport " 9 broad axes " manage transform after, estimate will make Shenzhen airport annual increase the profit of one billion Yuan, press the first kind of purchase scheme reshuffle the 699,890,000 rear total calculations of capital stock, each increase profit 1. 43 Yuan. For not circulate share a Yuan is a first , convection clear share big not identical. Assume that security market lows the investment market of speculation, each profit increase 1. 43 Yuan will make share price go up again 28. 6 Yuan ( sum according to the price/earning ratio of 20 times); If is investment market each profit of suitable speculation increase 1. 43 Yuan will make share price go up again 57. 2 Yuan ( sum according to the price/earning ratio of 40 times); If is investment market each profit of plenty of speculations increase 1. 43 Yuan will make share price go up again 85. 8 Yuan ( sum according to the price/earning ratio of 60 times); If is investment market each profit of excessive speculation increase 1. 43 Yuan will make share price go up again 114. 4 Yuan ( sum according to the price/earning ratio of 80 times). This is security market " it is theoretical that wealth is enlarged ", is " exchange produces wealth " show way mainly.
The development of our country of the 10 remaining years of security market, have had, hundreds of purchase and reshuffle behavior. Have network concept, high-tech concept, college concept, software concept and privately owned concept , enter lifetime concept. And so on and so on. Put aside these concepts, do not say , its core should have only one, that is " profit increase ". Have no so far, a pass through speculative concept make appear on the market the operation of company achievement get genuine rise substantially. Speculate , concept is marketing company merely bank drawing machine , Tang Seng Rou, do not eat white, do not eat.
I carry out purchase work, have no what concept, to have is profit increase concept. Circulate if reach the profit of 3 years to turn goal, the share shareholder stock on hand each minimum also worth 40 Yuan, if coil during this rise suddenly , so each error 100 Yuan also have possibility. If this operation will reach each profit after decade to pass 10 Yuan, your wealth will be enlarged therefore 20 times even last a hundredfold. I writes in beginning of 2002 " Display in decade, share perfume, gain its one a hundredfold " say is this reason.
There is the investment story of a classics in America: Have one to lean, choose the tattered old lady that makes a living , die , in rubbish near her relative, in arrange old lady leave land have discovered a 100 beautiful round IBMs things left behind by the deceased company's stock. This 100 beautiful round IBM company's stock, through expert calculates it's value is beautiful round of forteen millions. Time is used only for 50 years, its value has increased one hundred and forty thousands times. Such investment efficiency in China will not occur again?
Use the summary of a word, So long as you believe security market " it is theoretical that wealth is enlarged " , also is " exchange produces wealth ". So after enterprise reshuffles , share price will surely rise 24. More than 29 Yuan.
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2002/7/9
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